Medicare Stand-Alone Drug Plan Premiums May Surge by 50% in 2027, with No Zero-Premium Options Available

People who stick with a stand-alone Medicare drug plan without shopping around could face much higher monthly costs in the next coverage year. A KFF analysis of Part D premiums projects that the average premium for stand-alone prescription drug plans will increase 50%, from $34 a month in 2026 to $51 in 2027, if enrollees remain in their current plans.

Roughly 10.4 million people, or 76% of stand-alone plan members who do not receive low-income assistance, would pay more if they make no changes. That total includes 4.1 million enrollees in plans that currently have no premium. Since no stand-alone plan will carry a $0 premium in 2027, those members would see automatic increases, KFF Health News reported.

For people in the plans with the sharpest hikes, switching can mean saving hundreds of dollars over the year. Open enrollment ends soon, and the plan selected by then will generally determine drug coverage costs for 2027.

Update Note: This article reports new premium and deductible projections released by KFF following MedicalDaily's earlier coverage of Part D plan terminations. The figures are KFF estimates based on CMS 2027 plan files and weighted by June 2026 enrollment, assuming people keep their current plans.

The Cost of Staying Put

The increases are far from even. Of the 13.6 million stand-alone enrollees without low-income subsidies, 2.4 million, or nearly one in five, would see monthly premium increases of more than $50, compared with about 38,000 people in 2026. Nearly 30%, or 3.9 million, would pay $100 or more each month in total premiums, according to KFF. About 3.2 million would pay less, although most of them would save $5 a month or less.

Some of the steepest increases affect well-known brand-name plans. AARP Medicare Rx Preferred, offered by UnitedHealthcare, is expected to average $204.50 a month, up $78.50, or 62%, from $126. AARP Medicare Rx Saver is projected to climb by $48.10 to about $98, nearly doubling. At the low end, Centene's Wellcare Value Script Rx is projected at $6.50, up from $5.80.

Where a person lives also matters. For six of the eight national stand-alone plans, the most expensive region is at least $90 a month higher than the least expensive one. AARP Medicare Rx Saver, for example, ranges from $10.30 to $235.30 a month depending on the region, so a relative's price in another state may not apply.

Deductibles are rising as well. The standard Part D deductible, the most a plan can charge, will increase to $700 from $615. The average stand-alone plan deductible will rise to $643 from $540, and the average for drug coverage in Medicare Advantage plans will climb to $489 from $360. Most enrollees will also pay coinsurance, rather than flat copays, for brand-name drugs, making pharmacy bills harder to predict.

KFF's figures differ sharply from the federal projection. CMS estimated that the national average premium would rise by only about $1, from $35 to $36, based on September 2026 enrollment, but did not explain its method. KFF said CMS may have assumed that people would move to cheaper plans. In the prior year, KFF's early estimate for 2026 was $44, while the actual average came in at $34.

Policy changes are one likely reason for the increase. In July, CMS ended the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after two of its three planned years. The program provided extra subsidies to stand-alone plans and, for 2026, capped monthly premium increases at $50 for participating plans. CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has called the subsidy program an insurance industry bailout. CMS did not immediately respond to a request for comment from KFF Health News.

A Separate Issue From Plan Terminations

MedicalDaily previously reported that more than 1 million people are losing their stand-alone Part D plans for 2027 and must select new coverage to avoid a gap and a lasting penalty. The new KFF data involve a much larger group: people whose plans continue, but at a higher cost.

That group may feel less urgency. No termination notice arrives, and the plan simply renews automatically. But that quiet rollover still carries risk. Earlier this year, thousands of people lost drug plans they believed were free after missing small new premiums, some as low as $8.10 over three months, KFF Health News reported. Most cannot join another plan until coverage begins in the next plan year.

"With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment," said Juliette Cubanski, vice president and director of KFF's Program on Medicare Policy, in a KFF news release. "There are relatively low-premium PDP options, but people facing large premium increases need to take action if they want to avoid paying significantly more."

Switching can make a big difference. Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, told KFF Health News that his AARP plan premium was set to rise from $39.60 to $121.90 a month. He found a Humana plan with similar benefits for $19.30 a month and estimates that he will save about $1,000 next year.

Who Is Likely to Pay the Most

The heaviest burden falls on stand-alone members who do not qualify for Extra Help, Medicare's low-income drug subsidy, especially those in AARP-branded plans, people now paying a $0 premium, and anyone taking several brand-name drugs billed as coinsurance. These enrollees may face higher premiums and larger deductibles at the same time.

Medicare Advantage members are seeing smaller premium changes. Their drug coverage averages about $9 a month in 2027, up by less than $2, although their average deductible is rising faster in percentage terms, at 36% compared with 19% for stand-alone plans.

People who receive Extra Help pay a $0 plan deductible in 2027, according to Medicare. Those with limited income and savings can apply through Social Security to see whether they qualify, which can sharply reduce premiums and copays. Adult children who manage a parent's prescriptions should check the plan's Annual Notice of Change for the new premium.

How to Compare Plans Before Enrollment Ends

Start with an updated list of every prescription and dose. Enter it into the Medicare Plan Finder to compare estimated annual total costs, not just monthly premiums. Review each drug's tier, whether it is subject to coinsurance, and which pharmacies are preferred.

Free counseling is available through each state's State Health Insurance Assistance Program, and 1-800-MEDICARE can help by phone. People facing high drug costs can also ask their plan about the Medicare Prescription Payment Plan, which spreads out-of-pocket drug expenses into monthly payments over the year. Anyone thinking about skipping a medication because of cost should first speak with a pharmacist or clinician about lower-cost options.

KFF expects the actual average premium for 2027 to come in below $51 as people move to lower-cost plans, which is why comparing options matters. Changes made by the enrollment deadline take effect at the start of the new year.

Key Questions Answered

How much are Medicare stand-alone drug plan premiums expected to rise? KFF projects that the average will rise 50%, from $34 to $51 a month, if enrollees keep their current plans. The actual average will likely be lower as people switch.

How many people will pay more? About 10.4 million stand-alone enrollees without low-income help, including 4.1 million now in zero-premium plans.

Are any $0 stand-alone plans available for 2027? No. KFF found no zero-premium stand-alone plans for people without Extra Help.

Which plans are rising the most? AARP Medicare Rx Preferred is projected to rise by $78.50 a month on average, to $204.50, and AARP Medicare Rx Saver is expected to nearly double.

Are deductibles going up? Yes. The standard Part D deductible rises to $700 from $615, and the average stand-alone plan deductible rises to $643 from $540.

What is the deadline to switch? Open enrollment ends soon, and new coverage starts Jan. 1.

Where can I get free help? Your State Health Insurance Assistance Program and 1-800-MEDICARE offer free help comparing plans.