December 7 Medicare enrollment cutoff could determine next year's costs

A notable change in Medicare pricing is set to arrive in 2027, but the chance to capture any savings will depend on the coverage choices beneficiaries make before the December 7 enrollment deadline.

According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Medicare Advantage premiums are projected to decline next year, while Medicare Part B premiums are expected to increase more slowly than many retirees may have anticipated.

Prescription drug coverage, though, will carry a higher annual deductible and out-of-pocket maximum in 2027.

At the same time, major insurers are pulling back in some areas, which is leaving certain counties with fewer options and reducing access to some providers and extra benefits such as dental care in selected regions.

That means two neighbors in the same county could end up paying very different amounts starting in January 2027, depending on the plans they select after the latest round of changes.

Research from KFF published in September 2024 found that nearly seven in 10 Medicare beneficiaries had not compared their coverage during open enrollment for 2022, underscoring how often people stay in the same plan without reviewing alternatives.

CMS forecasts a 16.5% decline in Medicare Advantage premiums for 2027

CMS said average monthly Medicare Advantage premiums are expected to fall 16.5%, from $14.37 in 2026 to $12 in 2027. The agency also projects that prescription drug premiums bundled into Medicare Advantage plans will drop from $11.32 to $7, a 38% decrease after federal rebates.

Standalone prescription drug plans are moving in the opposite direction, with premiums rising from $35.09 in 2026 to about $36 in 2027. That is one reason lower Medicare Advantage premiums do not necessarily mean lower total healthcare costs for every beneficiary.

Enrollment in Medicare Advantage is projected to reach 34 million in 2027, or about 47.4% of all Medicare beneficiaries nationwide. Access remains wide, with more than 99% of enrollees having at least one plan choice and 97% having 10 or more.

CMS also estimates that about eight in 10 Medicare Advantage enrollees will keep their current plan at the same premium or a lower one. But that will not be true everywhere, since some insurers have narrowed their service areas or adjusted benefits for 2027.

Higher drug caps and physician premiums add to the 2027 cost outlook

The maximum out-of-pocket amount that Medicare Part D enrollees pay for covered prescription drugs will increase from $2,100 in 2026 to $2,400 in 2027.

The standard annual deductible will also rise, from $615 to $700, with 25% coinsurance applied until spending reaches the new limit, according to Medicare’s Contract Year 2027 rate announcement.

The Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration, a temporary subsidy program CMS launched in July 2024 to soften premium increases tied to the Inflation Reduction Act’s benefit redesign, ends after 2026. CMS confirmed that the program will no longer provide the cushion that helped hold down standalone Part D costs in recent enrollment cycles.

The standard Medicare Part B premium is projected to climb from $202.90 to $209.50 a month in 2027, an increase of $6.60. An AARP analysis of the Medicare Trustees Report confirms the figure, and the agency expects the Part B deductible to increase from $283 to $292.

National averages for Medicare Advantage premiums also hide sharp differences by state that often get lost in fall enrollment coverage.

Wyoming has the highest average at $69.23 per month, while Mississippi is at $4.08, according to a Becker’s Payer Issues review of CMS data.

Open enrollment offers the main chance to lock in lower premiums

Medicare’s annual open enrollment period runs from October 15 through December 7, 2026, and all changes take effect on January 1, 2027, according to CMS. That gives beneficiaries roughly eight weeks to join, drop, or switch Medicare Advantage and prescription drug plans for next year.

Juliette Cubanski, vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, told the Associated Press that automatically staying in the same plan can mean missing better and cheaper choices.

She said the enrollment window is a beneficiary’s main yearly opportunity to find savings or avoid less favorable coverage.

An opportunity to evaluate the coverage they have and see if there might be better options for them in terms of accessing the care that they need at possibly a lower cost,

Behind the premium headlines, insurer footprints are still changing. Reuters reported that UnitedHealthcare alone is leaving counties covering 600,000 members in 2026.

Nearly 3 million Medicare Advantage members had to find new coverage for 2026 after insurers exited markets, according to a JAMA study reported by Reuters.

Early 2027 figures suggest another 3.2 million people enrolled in individual plans may face the same kind of upheaval this fall, CNN confirmed.

How to find Medicare savings before the December 7 cutoff

Medicare’s Plan Finder on Medicare.gov lets beneficiaries compare available plans using their prescriptions and preferred pharmacies.

CMS says the tool can help people compare monthly premiums, deductibles, drug costs, and estimated annual spending.

Beneficiaries should also read their insurer’s Annual Notice of Change, which explains updates to premiums, copayments, covered services, drug formularies, and provider networks that take effect in January.

Nancy LeaMond, AARP’s executive vice president and chief advocacy officer, urged beneficiaries to shop around and compare options as healthcare costs and Medicare benefits change for 2027, according to the Associated Press.

KFF advises people to make sure their doctors remain in network and to compare total yearly costs, including deductibles and coinsurance, because national premium averages do not reflect every plan change.

For beneficiaries whose plans are ending, reviewing replacement options before the December 7 deadline is especially important.

In the end, the biggest Medicare savings in 2027 may come not from picking the plan with the lowest advertised premium, but from comparing drug coverage, provider access, supplemental benefits, and expected out-of-pocket costs.