What to Budget for Your Winter 2026 Heating Costs

As the coldest stretch of the year approaches, many households may be asking what winter heating will cost. The answer depends on several things, including where you live, the weather, local energy rates, the size of your home and how much fuel or electricity you use.

Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s short-term fuel outlook, winter heating expenses are projected to average from $640 for natural gas users to $2,115 for heating oil users.

MoneyLion uses the Northeast, where winters are typically the harshest, as a reference point to show how heating budgets may compare across regions with milder conditions in the West and South.

What You May Spend to Heat Your Home

Below are the national average total winter heating costs for the most common fuels per household for the coming winter season, along with the year-over-year changes, according to the EIA. Solar heating was not included.

Heating Oil Users Face the Largest Increase

Oil prices remain a major issue amid supply disruptions and tighter availability tied to the Iran conflict.

Households that rely on heating oil — about 3% of U.S. homes — could see the biggest jump. The EIA projects average spending of $2,115, roughly 21% higher than the prior winter. Heating oil is used mostly in the Northeast, although a milder season could reduce consumption and soften bills.

In Massachusetts, the average heating oil price reached $6.18 per gallon compared with $3.53 per gallon in the same period a year earlier, according to a weekly report from the Massachusetts Department of Energy. That marks a 74% increase.

Maine reported average heating oil prices ranging from $6.01 to $6.81 per gallon depending on location, according to the Maine Department of Energy Resources.

Propane Costs Are Expected to Dip Slightly

For households that heat with propane, average spending is projected at $1,246 over the winter months. That would be about 3% lower than last winter. In the Northeast, the EIA expects propane costs to fall about 15%, reflecting lower fuel prices and reduced consumption.

Electric Heating Costs Are Edging Up

Homes heated with electricity may spend an average of $1,196 over the winter, about 4% more than a year earlier, according to the report.

The Northeast is expected to benefit from warmer conditions, which can help limit bills. In the West, however, colder weather may push heating costs up by 9%, with a strong El Niño pattern expected to influence conditions. Temperatures in the South and Midwest are projected to stay close to last year’s levels.

Natural Gas Could Be Cheaper

For natural gas users, winter heating bills could be about 9% lower than last year. The EIA puts average total winter heating costs at $640. Still, where you live remains a major factor.

Average natural gas heating costs are projected at $879 in the Northeast, $590 in the West, $613 in the Midwest and $590 in the South. Most regions are expected to spend less than last year, though the West could see a 7% increase because of weather conditions.

Ways to Lower Your Winter Heating Bill

AARP recommends several steps that can help reduce heating costs.

Set your thermostat lower when you are asleep or out of the house.

Seal drafts around windows with caulk or weatherstripping, and use heavy curtains to help keep cold air out.

Routine maintenance can cut heating expenses by as much as 10% and improve furnace efficiency. Consider scheduling a technician to clean filters, inspect fan motors and heat exchangers, and remove rusty water from your boiler.

Ask your energy provider whether you qualify for utility assistance or can sign up for a 12-month budget plan with level monthly payments.

You can also ask whether your utility offers a free energy assessment.

These projections provide a helpful starting point, but the EIA warns against comparing one fuel type directly with another. Homes that use different fuels are often clustered in different regions and may differ in size, efficiency and energy demand.

Weather can also change what households actually pay. The EIA expects nationwide temperatures to be similar to the previous winter, but regional conditions will vary. Its forecast calls for a warmer winter in the Northeast, near-normal temperatures in the Midwest and South, and a much colder winter in the West.

Electric Heating Costs

The EIA expects residential electricity prices to rise by about 3%, with slightly higher usage also contributing to the increase.

Electric households in the West could see the biggest increase, with spending projected to rise about 9% because of colder weather.

Keep in mind that these figures include all household electricity use during the winter, not just the electricity used for heating. That includes appliances, lighting and other needs.

Propane Heating Costs

The Northeast could see a larger decline in propane costs. The EIA expects spending there to fall about 15% because of lower fuel prices and reduced usage.

Unlike regulated electricity or natural gas rates, changes in wholesale propane prices can reach consumers fairly quickly. The EIA says wholesale price changes are generally fully reflected in retail propane and heating oil prices within four to six weeks.

How to Build a Winter Heating Budget

National and regional forecasts are useful as a benchmark, but your past bills may offer a better guide for your own home.

Review your utility or fuel bills from the previous winter and total what you spent. Then compare your fuel type and region with the EIA’s projected increase or decrease for the current season.

You can also check your current utility rate or local heating-fuel price. The EIA publishes residential natural gas prices by state, along with weekly heating oil and propane prices.

Your actual costs can still shift with weather, energy prices and household fuel use.

The EIA plans to update its winter outlook throughout the season, so revisiting the forecast as temperatures fall can help you adjust your budget before the largest bills arrive.