Study Says Trump Immigration Policies May Reduce Social Security Payments by $2,152 Annually

You may already know how tight a Social Security check can feel each month. After groceries and household expenses, there is often not much left, so losing another $180 a month could force some hard choices for people relying mainly on that income.

A new economic study says President Donald Trump’s immigration policies could eventually leave retirees with about that much less to spend each month. The link may seem unexpected, but it comes down to how many workers contribute to Social Security and what that means for future benefits.

What the study says about smaller benefits

An October 2026 report from Economic Insights and Research Consulting estimates that President Trump’s immigration policies could cut the average retiree’s Social Security benefits by $2,152 a year, or 8.6%, beginning in 2034. The projected loss is tied to fewer immigrant workers paying into the system.

The report was commissioned by America’s Voice, an advocacy group that favors more welcoming immigration policies. The $2,152 figure is a projection based on current policy continuing, not an official Social Security estimate or a guaranteed cut.

How fewer workers could affect the program

Social Security depends on payroll taxes from current workers to pay benefits to today’s retirees. At present, about 2.6 workers pay in for every beneficiary, and trustees expect that ratio to fall to around 2.3 by 2035.

Immigrants help support the system because many arrive during their working years and begin paying Social Security taxes long before they retire. Social Security actuaries estimate that an additional 100,000 immigrants a year would improve the program’s long-term finances by about 0.10% of taxable payroll.

If fewer immigrants enter the labor force, or more workers are removed through deportations, the program could collect less in taxes and have a harder time supporting future retirement benefits.

Undocumented workers also contribute billions

Many undocumented immigrants pay Social Security taxes even though they generally cannot claim retirement benefits themselves. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, these workers contributed about $24 billion in Social Security taxes in 2024, while a separate ITEP analysis estimated their contributions at $25.7 billion in 2022.

If those workers are deported, Social Security loses the taxes they would have paid, without necessarily reducing future benefit payments by much.

Possible cost of large-scale deportations

The Penn Wharton Budget Model examined several deportation scenarios and concluded that each would weaken Social Security’s finances.

In its most severe scenario, which assumed a decade of deportations followed by a permanent end to unauthorized immigration, Social Security’s deficits could rise by about $884 billion over 30 years.

The researchers also estimated that the retirement trust fund could exhaust its reserves roughly six months sooner.

Social Security was already under strain

Social Security was already facing financial pressure as more Americans retire and fewer workers contribute to the program. Lower immigration could intensify that strain by shrinking the pool of payroll taxpayers even further.

In their 2026 report, Social Security trustees cited lower immigration forecasts as one factor behind the program’s worsening outlook. They now expect the retirement trust fund to run out in 2032, leaving enough income to pay about 78% of scheduled benefits.

The study’s estimated 8.6% reduction in 2034 comes from a separate analysis of immigration policy, while the trustees’ projected 22% shortfall reflects Social Security’s broader funding outlook. Those figures should not be added together because they rely on different assumptions and may overlap.

How to prepare for retirement income risk

Check your estimated benefits through your my Social Security account at SSA.gov, then stress-test your budget using a smaller benefit amount. Trying a version that is about 20% lower, roughly the shortfall trustees project if nothing changes, can show how large a gap you may need to cover on your own. If that would strain your essentials, it is a warning sign worth acting on while you still have working years ahead.

It is also wise not to rush into claiming Social Security early because of worries about future cuts. Filing before full retirement age permanently lowers your monthly benefit, while waiting until age 70 can increase it.

Bottom line

You should not have to spend retirement worrying about what Washington might do to your Social Security check. The $2,152 warning is troubling, but it remains a projection, and lawmakers still have time to address the issue before retirees see cuts.

For now, finding practical ways to save money in retirement can give you a little more financial breathing room. Every extra dollar you set aside today is one less dollar to worry about later. And whatever happens with Social Security, having more control over how you spend your retirement is always valuable.