Obamacare premiums set for another sharp increase

Millions of Americans who rely on Obamacare for coverage are facing yet another double-digit premium increase, deepening the financial strain that has already pushed many others to give up their plans since last year.

The higher prices mainly reflect broader medical cost increases nationwide. They also underscore the latest setback for Obamacare under the Trump administration, which has allowed tax credits that helped people afford coverage to expire and has added new enrollment hurdles in what it says is an effort to curb widespread fraud.

According to an analysis released by KFF, a health research organization, the average price of coverage in Obamacare marketplaces will increase by 13% next year.

The Trump administration released new 2027 prices for 30 states with federally run exchanges. KFF used those figures, along with state data, to estimate the nationwide increase.

The sharp premium jumps for Obamacare plans are broadly in line with those expected in other health insurance markets, though they are somewhat higher. Several consulting firms have projected that employer-sponsored premiums, covering about 150 million people, could rise around 10% in 2027. Premiums for federal workers are climbing by more than 10%.

Polls have shown that healthcare costs remain one of voters’ top economic worries ahead of the midterm elections. In a recent KFF poll, about 60% of registered voters said they were concerned about affording healthcare for themselves and their families.

Kate and Mark Dwyer, a couple living in rural Oregon, have been weighing whether their budget can absorb another annual increase. They had already moved to the cheapest Obamacare plan available, leaving them responsible for thousands of dollars in out-of-pocket costs.

Next year, the least expensive plan would raise their monthly costs by more than $500, to nearly $3,000, Kate Dwyer said. That would amount to more than one-third of her income from a nonprofit job.

“We are looking at going without next year,” she said. “There is no middle ground. It’s either $3,000 or nothing.”

In what appeared to be an effort to ease such concerns, the Trump administration sent many Obamacare customers $500 checks this month to help offset premiums — a one-time payment made shortly before the election.

Across both the private and public health sectors, the cost increases have been driven by rising hospital prices, expensive payments under a consumer protection law that altered how some doctors are paid, and the growing use of artificial intelligence in doctors’ offices, according to benefits consultants and industry analysts. Several large employers also cited the rising cost of costly specialty medications, including cancer drugs and GLP-1 medicines.

The administration released the figures quietly on Friday afternoon in a data file. A government fact sheet on open enrollment published soon after did not mention the premium increase, but said three-quarters of Obamacare customers receiving subsidies can still find plans costing less than $50 a month.

Open enrollment and plan shopping begin Sunday, just ahead of the midterm elections, where affordability and higher prices for groceries, gasoline and healthcare have been central issues.

Although the federal government said 19.2 million people were enrolled in Obamacare coverage earlier this year, newer estimates point to a smaller total.

About 10% are older consumers who earned more than $63,840, a group that largely includes self-employed workers such as chiropractors, dentists, ranchers and farmers, along with many early retirees. Many of them already faced premium increases of more than $1,000 a month in 2026.

“This is a really small number of people,” said Cynthia Cox, director of KFF’s program on the Affordable Care Act. “But these people are getting hit the hardest by rising healthcare costs, and they don’t get any help.”

The average cost of the cheapest bronze plan with a high deductible will be about $700 a month for a 50-year-old single person, Cox said.

Most Obamacare enrollees earn less than $64,000 a year and will continue to receive income-based subsidies, meaning they will not face higher out-of-pocket premium costs next year. Taxpayer dollars will cover the added expense for those consumers.

Still, many households already under financial pressure have struggled to pay their share after premiums rose in 2026, and many have been forced into plans with higher deductibles.

In 2026, premiums climbed by an average of 26%, and the cost for all consumers more than doubled on average for the same plan after the Republican-led Congress allowed temporary federal subsidies to expire.

KFF estimates based on insurance filings with regulators suggest enrollment had dropped by nearly 5 million people by June.

A recent large survey from the Commonwealth Fund, a foundation and research group that supports the Affordable Care Act, found that the uninsured rate among working-age adults had risen since two years earlier.

Democrats last year forced a record 43-day government shutdown as they sought to use government funding to win an extension of the subsidies, or healthcare tax credits. Aides to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., have said he will schedule a vote to restore the extra subsidies in the first days of the next Congress if Democrats win a majority in the midterm elections.

The premium data was released shortly before the start of next year’s enrollment period, which runs from Sunday to Jan. 15. People in most states who want to buy Obamacare insurance for next year must sign up during that window, although a few states keep enrollment open longer.

Renewing customers could see increases that are even larger than the average.

“We really do encourage people to shop and compare” among the plans available to them, said Anthony Wright, executive director of Families USA, a left-leaning consumer advocacy group. He said the average increase can hide major differences in the cost of individual plans.

To bring down costs, many people switched this year from more comprehensive plans to so-called bronze coverage, which typically has lower premiums but much higher deductibles. The average ACA deductible rose to a record nearly $4,000 in 2026. As people look at plans for next year, some may no longer be able to avoid higher prices by moving to a skimpier plan.

Caroline Pearson, executive director of the Peterson Center on Healthcare, which focuses on reducing healthcare spending, said she had been watching the market closely for signs of instability after last year’s large price shock. She described the newly released increase as consistent with the rate hikes expected for employers and their workers.

However, few people with employer coverage face the full cost of insurance the way unsubsidized Obamacare customers do. Employers pay more than half the cost for the typical worker, and those premiums are tax deductible.

Administration officials say part of the enrollment drop is the result of efforts to crack down on fraudulent sign-ups, arguing that brokers enrolled fake consumers in subsidized coverage.

In September, Vice President JD Vance said the government had canceled coverage that brokers had arranged for about 750,000 people whose records lacked Social Security numbers and who had not used or contacted their health insurer through August. He and other administration officials said they believed there was evidence of more fraud.

But the Commonwealth survey suggests some people who dropped Obamacare coverage may now be going without any insurance at all.