NAR Says Lower Mortgage Rates and Improved Confidence Could Unleash Delayed Homebuying

Article Summary

On the supply side, Yun said inventory has increased as sales have slowed. Months’ supply is now at its highest point since 2015, and the median home spent 33 days on the market before going under contract in September, according to NAR.

“Homes are staying on the market a little longer than before,” Yun said. “With longer days on market, you have to be realistic to the market condition. Otherwise, buyers will reject the homes on the market.”

Yun said consumer psychology remains a major missing piece. He noted that consumer sentiment has fallen to about half of its 2000 level and is now weaker than during the Great Recession, even though the labor market has added jobs.

“If we can boost confidence levels, maybe that can also change the dynamics,” Yun said.

Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, shared results from the trade group’s newly released 2026 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. First-time buyers accounted for 22% of all buyers, close to a series low, while the median age of first-time buyers remained at a record 40.

Those figures suggest younger households are postponing homeownership even as they form households and move into their peak earning years. For lenders and real estate brokerages, that points to fewer entry-level transactions and greater emphasis on move-up buyers or those with more equity.

“First-time home buyers are struggling,” Lautz said. “They’re not struggling just with housing affordability. They’re also struggling with rent. They’re struggling with student loan debt, and a rising issue for first-time home buyers is childcare costs.”

Lautz also said sellers reported staying in their homes for a median of 12 years before selling, the longest tenure recorded in the survey.

“The golden handcuffs of low interest rate mortgages is true. People are holding on to those properties for longer periods of time,” she said. “It’s why we need to build more housing inventory—especially affordable housing inventory—for the potential first-time home buyers who are out there.”

Agent usage hits record highs

Even with technology and direct-to-consumer platforms, the use of licensed professionals in transactions remained strong, according to NAR’s survey. A reported 90% of buyers purchased through an agent, the highest share in four decades, and a record 92% of sellers used an agent.

“Sellers want agents to price that home competitively, find that qualified buyer, help with marketing, and make sure they get to the closing table in a time frame that they need to do so,” Lautz said.

Why this matters for housing professionals

For real estate agents and brokers, NAR’s data point to a market where transaction volume is being limited more by affordability, rates and sentiment than by a lack of underlying demand. A larger population, more jobs and greater housing wealth suggest activity could pick up quickly if mortgage rates ease and confidence improves.

For lenders, a 22% first-time buyer share and a median first-time buyer age of 40 show both near-term pressure and a future buildup of delayed demand. Households renting longer and managing student debt and childcare expenses may respond strongly if rates, prices or down payment hurdles improve.

For builders and developers, Lautz’s comments reinforce the policy and business argument for adding affordable housing. With existing owners locked in by sub-4% mortgages and staying put for a median 12 years, new construction remains one of the few ways to address the shortage of entry-level homes.

Yun’s and Lautz’s remarks also come as the industry adjusts to post-settlement commission rule changes and elevated borrowing costs, making accurate pricing, affordability counseling and clear consumer communication even more important for winning business in the years ahead.