Mortgage rates are at a one-month low. Six experts weigh in on where they may go in November

What this could mean for homebuyers

Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest point in a month, according to Freddie Mac data released on Thursday. The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 7.24% after dropping from 7.32% the previous week. But where do rates go from here? We asked six industry professionals for their outlook.

The consensus: don’t expect a dramatic move unless fresh inflation, employment, or other major economic data surprises the market.

“Mortgage rates in November will likely remain rangebound and a bit choppy, quickly reacting to incoming inflation and jobs data. If the data supports a cooling trend, rates could edge modestly lower at points during the month, but I expect some degree of volatility rather than a straight line downward,” said Ryan Hayes, head of retail sales at Chase Home Lending.

Rich Hoffman, senior vice president of sales at AD Mortgage, expects 30-year fixed rates to stay near 7.25% to 7.50%. “Despite concerns about higher rates, I don’t anticipate a major move outside that range unless inflation data surprises,” he said.

Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, said inflation remains the key variable, along with labor-market conditions and the broader economy. She expects rates to stay close to 7%. “The Fed has signaled more hikes could come if inflation stays elevated, so there isn’t much on the horizon that would push rates meaningfully lower. At the same time, markets have already priced in those expectations, so I don’t see a big jump either,” Fairweather said.

John Manning, managing broker at RE/MAX Gateway in Seattle, said he does not expect major movement until the new year unless a Federal Reserve meeting brings a big economic surprise. “As long as inflation metrics remain above the Federal Reserve benchmarks, there will be little downward movement,” he said.

Bob Johnson, head of originations at Newrez, pointed to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast, which puts the 30-year rate at an average of 7.3% in the fourth quarter, higher than previously expected. “Rates recently spiked to their highest level in more than three years, and while the MBA expects them to come down from those peaks, the expectation is that they remain on a higher path than previously forecast,” Johnson said.

Kate Wood, lending expert at NerdWallet, said the outlook remains mixed. “On one hand, persistent inflation pressures and the potential for the Iran conflict to reignite after the midterm elections make it seem like rates should head higher. On the other hand, investor concerns about actual profits from AI have created enough of a flight to safety to bring bond yields down, so that’s been tugging mortgage rates lower, too. Unless tech companies can successfully shift the narrative around AI spending and debt, this could gain momentum. That would allow mortgage rates to keep shifting downward,” Wood said.

What it means for homebuyers

The month is typically slower for home sales, and rates above 7% could push price-sensitive buyers to wait. Signed contracts have declined and homes are taking longer to sell in some markets. At the same time, builders are lowering prices and offering incentives, while sellers of existing homes are offering concessions such as help with closing costs or a rate buydown.

Hayes cautioned against trying to perfectly time mortgage rates. “Instead, I encourage prospective buyers to focus on what they can control: budgeting, strengthening credit, reducing debt and building savings. I encourage buyers to work with a home lending professional to explore loan options with an affordable and sustainable monthly payment that works for their complete financial picture,” he said.