Medicare prescription drug premiums are set to jump as Trump touts lower medicine costs

A new analysis says millions of Medicare beneficiaries who buy separate prescription drug plans will face an average 50% increase in monthly premiums in 2027.

Even so, many enrollees can avoid that average increase, from $34 a month to $51, by comparing plans during open enrollment, which runs through Dec. 7.

Robert Travis Scott of Abingdon, Virginia, made that move after getting a notice that his AARP-UnitedHealthcare Medicare drug plan premium would rise from $39.60 a month in 2026 to $121.90 in 2027. After checking prices online, he found a Humana plan with similar benefits for $19.30.

“Yes, I am quite happy about that,” he said of the new plan. Scott said he was shocked by how sharply his current premium was increasing and fears many older adults will not shop around. He estimates the switch will save him about $1,000 next year.

“With some plans increasing premiums substantially, the stakes are higher this year for people with Medicare stand-alone drug coverage if they sit on the sidelines during open enrollment,” said Juliette Cubanski, a vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, which produced the analysis. KFF is a health information nonprofit that includes KFF Health News.

Rising drug costs are among the affordability concerns frustrating voters ahead of the midterm election. President Donald Trump, whose approval rating has fallen in some polls, says his administration has delivered lower prices from drugmakers.

“What we’re doing great with is pharmaceuticals, hundreds of billions,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Ohio, saying his administration had pushed U.S. prices down to the lowest level in the world.

What patients actually pay depends on the medicines they use and the coverage they have.

People with Medicare drug coverage through private Medicare Advantage plans, which replace traditional Medicare coverage, are expected to see much smaller premium increases. The KFF analysis found that these enrollees will pay an average of $9 for drugs as part of their total monthly premium in 2027, an increase of less than $2 a month.

More than half of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans, which typically include drug coverage rather than relying on the traditional program.

Nearly 25 million people are enrolled in standalone Medicare prescription drug plans, according to KFF, while about 31 million get drug coverage through Medicare Advantage.

Premiums are only one part of the higher costs facing Medicare enrollees.

Most people with standalone drug plans or drug benefits through Medicare Advantage will also have an annual drug deductible in 2027.

The average deductible is projected to be $643 for standalone plans, up from $540 in 2026. For Medicare Advantage plans, the average deductible is expected to be $489, up from $360.

In addition, most Medicare enrollees with drug coverage next year will be paying coinsurance rather than copayments, the KFF analysis found. That can make out-of-pocket costs less predictable because coinsurance requires paying a percentage of a drug’s price instead of a fixed amount.

One possible reason for the projected premium increases is the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ decision to end early a three-year pilot program aimed at holding down standalone premiums. The program provided subsidies to standalone plans in 2025 and 2026.

KFF said ending that subsidy program after just two years could help explain why standalone premiums rise in 2027.

CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz has described the subsidy program as an insurance industry bailout.

KFF also said its analysis differs from CMS’ projection of a $1 rise in the national average premium, from $35 to $36, based on September 2026 enrollment. KFF said CMS did not explain how it reached that figure and may have assumed people would move to lower-cost plans.

CMS did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the KFF findings.

About 10.4 million Medicare enrollees, or 76% of people in standalone drug plans who do not receive low-income subsidies, will pay a higher monthly premium in 2027 if they stay in the same plan, KFF found.

That includes 4.1 million people now enrolled in zero-premium plans. They will automatically pay more in 2027 because no zero-premium plans will be available, according to the analysis.