The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, even as rising energy prices threaten to keep inflation elevated and put additional pressure on household budgets.
Higher oil and energy costs tied to the war with Iran may prove more persistent than expected, but the central bank’s decision to stay put gives policymakers more time to weigh the economic impact. The move could also leave room for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the Federal Open Market Committee to consider another rate increase at a later meeting if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% goal.
For many families, though, stubborn inflation and higher borrowing costs continue to make everyday life more expensive, economists say.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a post that the war has already cost the average U.S. household about $2,000, mostly through higher energy expenses, on top of increased interest costs.
“High-net-worth consumers are enjoying the runup in AI stocks and the value of their equity holdings, and are spending with some gusto,” Zandi told CNBC. “Lower- and middle-income consumers are increasingly struggling with falling real wages and high rates, and are much more cautious and careful spenders.”
How the Fed affects your money
By leaving rates in the current target range of 3.75% to 4%, and with additional increases still possible, the Fed is signaling that relief from expensive borrowing may not come soon.
The central bank influences the federal funds rate, the benchmark banks use for overnight lending to one another. That rate then filters through the wider economy, shaping borrowing costs for consumers and returns on savings.
Short-term consumer loans, including credit cards, tend to follow the prime rate, which usually moves with the Fed’s benchmark and sits about 3 percentage points higher. Longer-term borrowing, such as 30-year mortgages, is influenced more by inflation expectations and the broader economic outlook.
Credit cards are one of the clearest examples of the Fed’s reach. Because most cards carry variable rates, borrowers usually see changes in the federal funds rate show up within one or two billing cycles.
Even though the Fed’s benchmark has mostly held steady aside from a recent 25-basis-point increase, average credit card rates have continued to edge higher amid concern over rising delinquencies and persistent inflation, according to LendingTree.
“Credit card rates have risen for three straight months and are now at their highest levels since December 2025,” said Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst. “Rates are highly likely to rise in the next few months, too, as card issuers implement the Fed’s September hike,” he added.
Unlike credit cards and other variable-rate products, 15- and 30-year fixed mortgage rates do not move directly with the Fed’s benchmark. Instead, they generally track long-term Treasury yields, which have recently moved higher on worries that continued U.S.-Iran tensions and rising energy costs could keep inflation elevated.
As a result, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have stayed above 7% for more than a month, according to Mortgage News Daily.
“There is no single switch that will bring mortgage rates meaningfully lower,” said Jeff DerGurahian, LoanDepot’s chief investment officer and head economist. “We likely need several factors to fall into place, including cooler oil prices, softer consumer spending and a steady run of inflation reports showing progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.”
President Donald Trump has also signed an executive order aimed at trimming some mortgage costs as higher rates and inflation make homeownership less affordable.
Auto loan rates are fixed over the life of the loan, and market pricing is affected by several factors, including the Fed’s benchmark. “The headline new-car APR has essentially flatlined at the 7% threshold all year,” according to Joseph Yoon, senior analyst at Edmunds.
If the Fed does not raise rates, buyers could see somewhat lower auto loan offers in the coming weeks, though any relief may be temporary as dealers roll out special year-end financing deals, he said.
“If that number ticks down over the next two months, it won’t be because the broader lending environment suddenly turned loose,” he said. “Historically, the fourth quarter creates an artificial sense of rate relief because automakers and their captive finance branches start lowering interest rates to move outgoing cars before December 31.”
Still, Yoon said the “big catch” is that subsidized holiday financing is usually reserved for new-car shoppers with top-tier credit. “For everyone else — particularly shoppers browsing the used-car lots where interest rates continue to hold above 10% — the high cost of borrowing isn’t budging anytime soon,” he said.
Federal student loan rates are also fixed for the life of the loan, so most borrowers are partly insulated from Fed changes. However, rates for new borrowers are already higher based on the results of the 10-year Treasury note auction held in May. At present, interest rates for new federal student loans range from 6.52% to 9.07%, depending on the loan type.
Trump said he might support future legislation that would cap federal student loan interest rates. The bill, introduced by Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., and Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., remains in committee.
Savings rates often move in step with changes in the Fed’s target rate. Although keeping rates unchanged has left savings yields mostly steady, some of the highest-paying online savings accounts still offer returns above 4%, according to Bankrate.
“Now is a great time to shop around for a high-yield savings account to take advantage of today’s high rates,” Schulz said. “The returns are below the record highs of a few years ago, but they’re still far greater than what you can get from a traditional savings account with a giant megabank.”
The bottom line
For many households, the Fed’s biggest influence comes through its effort to contain inflation, economists say.
When higher rates help slow price increases, consumers may find it easier to afford essentials such as groceries and gas.
“The Fed cannot drill for oil, but it can make borrowing more expensive. Higher rates can restrain demand and limit businesses’ ability to pass along costs,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University and chief economist at SS Economics.
At the same time, elevated borrowing costs can make affordability problems worse for consumers. Some experts say households can ease part of that strain by paying down high-interest debt, negotiating better loan terms and taking advantage of stronger yields on savings.
“These steps can also improve access to more favorable financing options should interest rates moderate in the future,” said Charlie Wise, head of global research and consulting at TransUnion.
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