AHA Study: Deaths From Valvular Heart Disease Are Climbing in Older Adults

Valvular heart disease (VHD) death rates rose from 2018 through 2023 and are expected to stay above pre-pandemic levels through 2040, according to research presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2026 in Chicago.

Hritvik Jain, M.D., of Allegheny General Hospital in Pittsburgh, and colleagues analyzed trends in VHD among older adults. Their study used age-adjusted mortality rates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER database, covering adults age 65 and older from 1999 through 2023.

The team identified 1.2 million deaths linked to VHD over the study period. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate fell from 123.2 deaths per 100,000 people per year in 1999 to its lowest level before 2018, then climbed significantly from 2018 to 2023, reaching 109.2 deaths per 100,000 in 2023. Men had higher overall mortality rates than women, at 124.7 versus 103.1 deaths per 100,000 per year, although both groups saw increases after 2018. The greatest burden was among non-Hispanic White individuals, at 122.4 deaths per 100,000 per year, largely driven by nonrheumatic aortic valve disease. Rural areas had higher rates than metropolitan areas, at 120.5 versus 110.1 deaths per 100,000 per year, and the Western states showed the highest regional burden. Age-period patterns also diverged: later birth cohorts at ages 65 to 69 had better survival, while those reaching 85 and older faced steadily higher mortality risk. Forecasting suggested the age-adjusted mortality rate would level off at 109.2 deaths per 100,000 per year through 2040, still 35% above pre-pandemic trends.

"Our study found that the decades-long decline in deaths from heart valve disease has stopped," Jain said in a statement. "As the U.S. population continues to age, we need to focus on earlier detection, timely treatment, and equitable access to specialized valve care, particularly for the oldest adults and those living in rural communities."

One author reported ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

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